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Market Types

Public Wager offers different market formats to suit various prediction scenarios.

Binary Markets (YES/NO)​

The most common and straightforward format.

How They Work​

  • Two possible outcomes: YES or NO
  • One outcome wins, one loses
  • Prices always sum to $1.00

Example:

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by Dec 31, 2025?

YES: $0.65 (65% probability)
NO: $0.35 (35% probability)

When to Use​

✅ Questions with two clear outcomes

✅ Simple yes/no scenarios

✅ Beginner-friendly format

Payouts​

  • YES wins: YES holders get $1.00/share, NO gets $0
  • NO wins: NO holders get $1.00/share, YES gets $0

Multiple Choice Markets​

Three or more possible outcomes.

How They Work​

  • Multiple exclusive options
  • Only one option wins
  • All others resolve to $0

Example:

Who will win the 2024 election?

Candidate A: $0.45 (45%)
Candidate B: $0.35 (35%)
Candidate C: $0.15 (15%)
Other: $0.05 (5%)

When to Use​

✅ Questions with 3+ possible answers

✅ Competitions with multiple contestants

✅ Categorical predictions

Payouts​

  • Winning option: $1.00 per share
  • All other options: $0 per share

Scalar Markets​

Predict a specific numeric value or range.

How They Work​

  • Define a range of possible outcomes
  • Market resolves to a specific number
  • Payout scales based on accuracy

Example:

What will Apple's Q4 revenue be?

Range: $80B - $100B
Your prediction: $92B
Actual result: $94B

Payout calculated based on accuracy

When to Use​

✅ Numeric predictions

✅ Price forecasts

✅ Quantity estimates

Payouts​

Proportional to accuracy (varies by implementation)

Conditional Markets​

Markets that depend on other events.

How They Work​

  • Primary market must resolve first
  • Secondary market only active if condition met
  • Provides deeper insights

Example:

Primary: Will Candidate A win the primary?

Conditional: If Candidate A wins primary,
             will they win the general election?

The conditional market only resolves if the
primary market resolves YES.

When to Use​

✅ Sequential events

✅ Dependent outcomes

✅ Scenario analysis

Market Series​

Related markets over time or categories.

How They Work​

  • Multiple markets on same topic
  • Different time periods or conditions
  • Can be traded individually

Example:

Presidential Approval Rating Series:

- Will approval exceed 50% in Q1 2025?
- Will approval exceed 50% in Q2 2025?
- Will approval exceed 50% in Q3 2025?
- Will approval exceed 50% in Q4 2025?

When to Use​

✅ Tracking metrics over time

✅ Related predictions

✅ Comparative analysis

Choosing the Right Market Type​

Decision Guide​

Use Binary when:

  • Clear yes/no question
  • Two possible outcomes
  • Simplicity is important

Use Multiple Choice when:

  • 3+ mutually exclusive options
  • One winner from many contestants
  • Categorical outcomes

Use Scalar when:

  • Predicting specific numbers
  • Range of possibilities
  • Precision matters

Use Conditional when:

  • Events are dependent
  • Sequential outcomes
  • Scenario planning

Use Series when:

  • Tracking over time
  • Multiple related questions
  • Comparative insights

Market Type Comparison​

FeatureBinaryMultiple ChoiceScalarConditional
ComplexitySimpleMediumAdvancedAdvanced
Outcomes23+ContinuousDependent
Best ForBeginnersCompetitionsForecastingAnalysis
LiquidityHighMediumLowerLower
ResolutionClearClearComplexComplex

Trading Across Market Types​

Portfolio Strategy​

Diversify across market types:

  • 60% Binary: Core holdings, easy to understand
  • 25% Multiple Choice: Higher risk/reward
  • 10% Scalar: Precision bets
  • 5% Conditional: Advanced analysis

Risk Profiles​

Market TypeRisk LevelPotential ReturnComplexity
BinaryLow-MediumModerateLow
Multiple ChoiceMediumHighMedium
ScalarMedium-HighVariableHigh
ConditionalHighVery HighVery High

Advanced Features​

Linked Markets​

Markets that provide related information:

Market A: Will Event X happen?
Market B: When will Event X happen?
Market C: What will be the magnitude of Event X?

Combinatorial Markets​

Bet on combinations of outcomes:

Team A wins AND Score > 50 points
Candidate wins PRIMARY AND GENERAL
Event happens BEFORE DATE and ABOVE THRESHOLD

Best Practices​

For Traders​

  1. Start with binary markets
  2. Understand the format before trading
  3. Check resolution criteria carefully
  4. Consider liquidity (binary usually highest)
  5. Diversify across market types

For Market Creators​

  1. Choose simplest format that works
  2. Binary is default for most questions
  3. Use multiple choice for 3+ clear options
  4. Avoid scalar unless necessary
  5. Test resolution logic before publishing

Examples by Category​

Politics​

  • Binary: "Will Candidate X win?"
  • Multiple Choice: "Who will win?" (3+ candidates)
  • Scalar: "What will vote percentage be?"

Sports​

  • Binary: "Will Team X win championship?"
  • Multiple Choice: "Who wins the tournament?"
  • Scalar: "What will final score be?"

Business​

  • Binary: "Will stock hit $100?"
  • Multiple Choice: "Which company has highest revenue?"
  • Scalar: "What will quarterly earnings be?"

Crypto​

  • Binary: "Will Bitcoin exceed $100k?"
  • Multiple Choice: "Which coin gains most?"
  • Scalar: "What will Bitcoin price be on Dec 31?"

Next Steps​

Ready to start trading?

Need Help?​