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Exploring Markets

Public Wager offers hundreds of prediction markets across various categories. This guide will help you discover, evaluate, and understand markets before placing your first bet.

Accessing the Markets​

From the Homepage​

  1. Navigate to publicwager.com
  2. Click Markets in the main navigation
  3. Browse the featured and trending markets

Market Categories​

Markets are organized into categories:

  • 🗳️ Politics - Elections, policy decisions, approval ratings
  • ⚽ Sports - Game outcomes, championships, player performance
  • 💼 Business - Company earnings, product launches, acquisitions
  • 🎬 Entertainment - Awards shows, box office, streaming metrics
  • 💰 Crypto - Price predictions, network events, protocol launches
  • 🌍 World Events - Current affairs, international news
  • 🔬 Science & Tech - Research breakthroughs, product releases
  • 📊 Economics - Market indicators, unemployment, GDP forecasts

Understanding Market Pages​

Market Header​

Every market page displays:

  • Question: Clear statement of what's being predicted
  • Current Price: YES/NO share prices
  • Resolution Date: When the market closes and resolves
  • Total Volume: Amount of money traded
  • Category: Market classification

Example Market​

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025?

YES: $0.42  |  NO: $0.58
Closes: Dec 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM UTC
Volume: $1,245,890  |  Category: Crypto

Reading Market Information​

Share Prices​

The current price tells you the market's probability estimate:

  • YES at $0.42 = 42% probability according to traders
  • NO at $0.58 = 58% probability according to traders

Remember: YES + NO prices always equal $1.00 in binary markets.

Price Chart​

The chart shows price movement over time:

  • Upward trend: Growing confidence in YES
  • Downward trend: Growing confidence in NO
  • Flat line: Market consensus is stable
  • Volatility: Uncertainty or new information

Trading Volume​

Volume indicates market activity:

  • High volume: Popular market with liquidity
  • Low volume: Less active, may have wider spreads
  • Recent spikes: New information or major trades

Order Book​

See current buy and sell orders:

  • Bid: Highest price someone will pay
  • Ask: Lowest price someone will sell for
  • Spread: Difference between bid and ask

Evaluating Markets​

Questions to Ask​

Before trading, consider:

  1. Do I understand the question clearly?

    • What exactly is being asked?
    • What would constitute YES vs NO?

  2. Is the resolution criteria clear?

    • How will the outcome be determined?
    • What's the authoritative source?

  3. When does it resolve?

    • Is there enough time to benefit from price movements?
    • Can new information emerge before resolution?

  4. Is there enough liquidity?

    • Can I easily buy and sell without slippage?
    • What's the trading volume?

  5. What's my edge?

    • Do I have information or insight others don't?
    • Is the current price accurate or mispriced?

Red Flags to Watch For​

🚩 Ambiguous questions - Unclear what constitutes resolution

🚩 Distant resolution dates - Long time horizon increases uncertainty

🚩 Very low volume - May be hard to enter/exit positions

🚩 Unclear resolution criteria - Potential disputes

🚩 Extreme prices ($0.01 or $0.99) - Already heavily consensus

Market Details Section​

Description​

Read the full market description:

  • Background information
  • Context and relevance
  • Important considerations
  • Edge cases and clarifications

Resolution Criteria​

Critical section explaining:

  • What triggers YES: Specific conditions for YES outcome
  • What triggers NO: Specific conditions for NO outcome
  • Resolution source: Where official outcome comes from
  • Edge cases: How unusual situations are handled

Example Resolution Criteria:

This market resolves to YES if Bitcoin (BTC) trades at or above $100,000 on any major exchange (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken) before 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2025. Price will be determined by the daily closing price on CoinMarketCap.

Comments & Discussion​

Community insights can help you:

  • Understand different perspectives
  • Learn about new information
  • Spot potential edge cases
  • Gauge market sentiment

Tips for reading comments:

  • Look for factual information, not just opinions
  • Check when comments were posted
  • Consider the commenter's track record
  • Verify claims independently

Search and Filters​

Search Functionality​

Find specific markets:

  1. Use the search bar at the top
  2. Enter keywords (e.g., "election", "Apple", "Super Bowl")
  3. Browse results with live filtering

Filter Options​

Narrow down markets by:

  • Category: Politics, Sports, etc.
  • Status: Active, Closing Soon, Resolved
  • Volume: High to Low or Low to High
  • Resolution Date: Soonest to Latest
  • Price Range: Specific probability ranges

Sorting Markets​

Sort by:

  • Trending: Most active right now
  • Volume: Most money traded
  • Recent: Newly created markets
  • Closing Soon: About to resolve
  • Popular: Most participants

Market States​

Markets can be in different states:

Active​

  • ✅ Open for trading
  • ✅ Can buy/sell shares
  • ⏰ Not yet resolved

Closing Soon​

  • ⚠️ Resolves within 24 hours
  • ⚠️ Higher volatility possible
  • ⚠️ Less time for price movements

Resolved​

  • ✔️ Event has concluded
  • ✔️ Outcome determined
  • ✔️ Payouts distributed
  • ❌ No more trading

Disputed​

  • ⚠️ Resolution being reviewed
  • ⚠️ Outcome unclear or contested
  • ⏸️ Temporary trading pause

Your Watchlist​

Adding Markets to Watchlist​

Save markets for later:

  1. Click the ⭐ Star icon on any market
  2. Access your watchlist from the profile menu
  3. Get notifications for price changes

Managing Your Watchlist​

  • View all saved markets in one place
  • Set price alerts for specific thresholds
  • Receive updates on market news
  • Quick access to markets you're interested in

Market Insights​

Trader Statistics​

See aggregate data:

  • Number of traders: How many people are trading
  • Average position size: Typical investment amount
  • YES/NO distribution: How traders are split

Similar Markets​

Find related predictions:

  • Markets on the same topic
  • Markets by the same creator
  • Markets in the same category
  • Markets with similar odds

Tips for Beginners​

Start Small​

  • Begin with markets you understand well
  • Use small amounts while learning
  • Don't risk more than you can afford to lose

Do Your Research​

  • Read the full description and criteria
  • Research the topic independently
  • Look for reputable sources
  • Consider multiple perspectives

Watch Before Trading​

  • Add markets to your watchlist
  • Observe price movements for a few days
  • See how news affects prices
  • Learn market behavior patterns

Diversify​

  • Don't put all funds in one market
  • Spread across different categories
  • Balance high and low probability bets
  • Manage your overall risk

Next Steps​

Ready to start trading?

  1. Learn How to Place Bets - Make your first trade
  2. Understand Market Types - Explore different formats
  3. Check Fee Structure - Know the costs involved

Need Help?​

Happy exploring! When you're ready, learn how to place your first bet →