Creating Markets
Learn how to create your own prediction markets on Public Wager and engage the community with interesting questions about future events.
Why Create Markets?
Creating markets allows you to:
- 📊 Gauge public opinion on events you care about
- 💡 Surface crowd wisdom on uncertain outcomes
- 🎯 Engage the community around interesting topics
- 💰 Earn fees from market activity (if enabled)
- 🏆 Build reputation as a quality market creator
Before You Start
Prerequisites
To create markets, you need:
- ✅ Verified Public Wager account
- ✅ Understanding of how prediction markets work
- ✅ Clear, objective event to predict
- ✅ Definitive resolution source
Market Creator Requirements
Different tiers may have different privileges:
| Level | Markets/Month | Categories | Minimum Rep |
|---|---|---|---|
| Basic | 5 | All public | 0 |
| Advanced | 20 | All + custom | 100 |
| Expert | Unlimited | All + featured | 500 |
Planning Your Market
Choose a Good Question
Great prediction markets have:
1. Clear, Specific Questions
✅ Good: "Will Bitcoin close above $100,000 on December 31, 2025?"
❌ Bad: "Will Bitcoin do well?"
2. Objective Outcomes
✅ Good: "Will the Warriors win the championship?" (yes/no outcome)
❌ Bad: "Will the Warriors play well?" (subjective)
3. Verifiable Resolution
✅ Good: "Will unemployment rate exceed 5% in June 2025 per BLS report?"
❌ Bad: "Will the economy be good?" (no clear source)
4. Interesting to Community
✅ Good: Major election, popular sporting event, significant business news
❌ Bad: Obscure local event with limited interest
5. Appropriate Timeframe
✅ Good: Resolution between 1 week and 6 months
❌ Bad: Resolves in 1 hour (too quick) or 5 years (too long)
Market Types
Choose your market format:
Binary (YES/NO)
Most common format:
- Two outcomes only
- Simple to understand
- Easy to resolve
Examples:
- "Will it rain tomorrow?"
- "Will the bill pass?"
- "Will the product launch on time?"
Multiple Choice
Three or more outcomes:
- One winner selected
- More complex
- Higher engagement
Examples:
- "Who will win the election?" (Candidate A, B, or C)
- "Which team wins?" (Team 1, 2, 3, or 4)
- "What will Q4 revenue be?" (0-50M, 50-100M, 100M+)
Scalar
Range of possible values:
- Numeric outcome
- Precision betting
- Advanced format
Examples:
- "What will be the final vote percentage?"
- "How many units will be sold?"
- "What will the temperature be?"
Note: Start with binary markets until you're experienced.
Creating Your First Market
Step 1: Access Market Creation
- Navigate to Create Market in the menu
- Or click + New Market button
- Select market type (Binary, Multiple Choice, Scalar)
Step 2: Write the Question
Enter your market question:
Title: Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025?
Tips:
- Keep it under 120 characters
- Make it a yes/no question (for binary)
- Be specific with dates, thresholds, and criteria
- Avoid ambiguity
Step 3: Add Description
Provide context and details:
This market resolves to YES if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds
$100,000 USD on any major exchange before 11:59 PM UTC on
December 31, 2025.
Background:
Bitcoin has been on a bull run following the recent halving...
Important Notes:
- Price must be confirmed on at least 2 of 3 major exchanges
- Intraday highs count (doesn't need to close at $100k)
- Flash crashes or obvious errors will be investigated
Include:
- Background information
- Why this question matters
- Relevant context
- Edge cases to consider
Step 4: Set Resolution Criteria
This is critical - be extremely specific:
Resolution Criteria:
YES if:
- Bitcoin trades at or above $100,000 on Coinbase, Binance,
or Kraken
- At any time before 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2025
- Price confirmed on CoinMarketCap within 24 hours
NO if:
- Bitcoin fails to reach $100,000 by the deadline
- Or market is otherwise cancelled
Resolution Source:
- Primary: CoinMarketCap historical data
- Secondary: Exchange trading data from Coinbase/Binance/Kraken
- Tertiary: Creator discretion if data is ambiguous
Edge Cases:
- If exchanges are offline/inaccessible, resolution extended 24 hours
- Flash crashes under 1 minute don't count
- If Bitcoin hard forks, the main chain (by market cap) is used
Best Practices:
- List specific data sources
- Define YES and NO conditions clearly
- Address potential edge cases
- Specify backup resolution methods
- Set expectations for timing
Step 5: Set Resolution Date
Choose when the market resolves:
Resolution Date: December 31, 2025
Resolution Time: 11:59 PM UTC
Guidelines:
- Give yourself buffer time after event
- Consider time zones
- Allow time for official results
- Account for potential delays
Step 6: Choose Category
Select appropriate category:
- Politics
- Sports
- Business
- Entertainment
- Crypto
- World Events
- Science & Tech
- Economics
- Other
Tip: Choose the most specific category for better discoverability.
Step 7: Set Tags
Add relevant tags for search:
Tags: bitcoin, cryptocurrency, price prediction, 2025
Benefits:
- Improves discoverability
- Helps categorization
- Aids filtering
Step 8: Set Initial Liquidity (Optional)
Some platforms allow seeding initial liquidity:
Initial Liquidity: $100
YES Shares: 500 at $0.50
NO Shares: 500 at $0.50
Purpose:
- Provide initial trading ability
- Set starting probability
- Encourage participation
Step 9: Review and Submit
Before submitting, verify:
- ✅ Question is clear and unambiguous
- ✅ Resolution criteria are specific
- ✅ Data sources are reliable
- ✅ Timeline is appropriate
- ✅ All edge cases addressed
- ✅ Spelling and grammar correct
Click Create Market when ready.
After Creation
Market Review Period
Your market may go through review:
- Instant: Auto-approved based on reputation
- Quick Review: 1-2 hours for basic checks
- Full Review: 24-48 hours for complex markets
Possible Review Outcomes
- ✅ Approved: Market goes live
- ⚠️ Needs Changes: Requested modifications
- ❌ Rejected: Does not meet guidelines
Making Requested Changes
If changes are needed:
- Review feedback from moderators
- Edit market (if in draft stage)
- Address specific concerns
- Resubmit for review
Market Management
Your Creator Dashboard
Access your market dashboard to:
- View all your markets
- Track engagement metrics
- Monitor trading activity
- Respond to questions
- Manage resolution
Engaging With Traders
Respond to Questions
Traders may ask clarifications:
- Answer promptly
- Be objective and fair
- Update market description if needed
- Don't show bias toward outcome
Handle Disputes
If resolution is disputed:
- Review your stated criteria
- Be transparent in decision-making
- Cite specific sources
- Allow community input
- Be willing to N/A if truly ambiguous
Market Statistics
Monitor your market's performance:
- Volume: Total amount traded
- Traders: Number of participants
- Liquidity: Available buy/sell depth
- Price History: Movement over time
- Comments: Community discussion
Market Guidelines
What's Allowed
✅ Events with objective outcomes
✅ Appropriate resolution timeframes
✅ Clear, verifiable criteria
✅ Matters of public interest
✅ Events within platform categories
What's Not Allowed
❌ Illegal activities or outcomes
❌ Harm to individuals
❌ Manipulable outcomes
❌ Spam or duplicate markets
❌ Deliberately ambiguous criteria
❌ Personal/private information
❌ Regulated financial instruments
Quality Standards
Great markets have:
- Clarity: No ambiguity in question
- Objectivity: No room for bias in resolution
- Verifiability: Clear, public data source
- Interest: Community finds it engaging
- Timing: Appropriate duration
- Completeness: All edge cases covered
Common Mistakes
❌ Vague Questions
Problem: "Will the economy improve?"
Solution: "Will GDP growth exceed 3% in Q4 2025?"
❌ Subjective Resolution
Problem: "Will the movie be good?"
Solution: "Will the movie score above 80% on Rotten Tomatoes?"
❌ Unclear Criteria
Problem: "Based on news reports"
Solution: "Based on official announcement from Company X's press release"
❌ No Edge Cases
Problem: No mention of what happens if event is cancelled
Solution: Explicitly state "Resolves N/A if event is cancelled"
❌ Unrealistic Timeline
Problem: Event resolves in 5 years
Solution: Create markets that resolve within 1-6 months typically
Advanced Market Creation
Market Series
Create related markets:
Series: 2025 Presidential Approval
- Will approval exceed 50% in Q1?
- Will approval exceed 50% in Q2?
- Will approval exceed 50% in Q3?
- Will approval exceed 50% in Q4?
Conditional Markets
Markets that depend on others:
Primary: Will Candidate A win the primary?
Conditional: If Candidate A wins primary, will they win general?
Linked Markets
Create complementary markets:
Market A: Will Event X happen?
Market B: If Event X happens, when will it occur?
Earning from Market Creation
Creator Fees
Some platforms share fees with creators:
Trading Volume: $10,000
Platform Fee: 2% = $200
Creator Share: 20% of fees = $40
Reputation Benefits
Successful markets build:
- Creator reputation score
- Higher approval rates
- Larger creation limits
- Featured placement opportunities
Community Recognition
Top creators get:
- Leaderboard placement
- Creator badges
- Increased visibility
- Community respect
Best Practices
Research Similar Markets
Before creating:
- Search for similar existing markets
- Learn from successful markets
- Avoid duplicates
- Find unique angles
Start Simple
For your first markets:
- Choose binary format
- Pick familiar topics
- Use short time horizons
- Select popular categories
Iterate and Improve
Learn from each market:
- Read community feedback
- Analyze what worked
- Refine your approach
- Build on successes
Be Active
Engaged creators:
- Respond to questions quickly
- Update descriptions as needed
- Resolve promptly
- Maintain multiple active markets
Next Steps
Ready to dive deeper?
- Resolution Criteria Guide - Master clear criteria
- Resolving Markets - Learn the resolution process
- Market Types - Understand all formats
Need Help?
- Examples: Browse successful markets for inspiration
- Questions: See FAQ
- Support: Email creators@publicwager.com
Ready to learn about resolution criteria? Continue →