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Portfolio Management

Learn how to track, analyze, and optimize your Public Wager portfolio for better performance and returns.

Accessing Your Portfolio

Portfolio Dashboard

Navigate to your portfolio from:

  • Click Portfolio in the main navigation
  • Access from your profile dropdown
  • View quick stats in the dashboard

What You'll See

Your portfolio dashboard shows:

  • Total Balance: All funds across positions and wallet
  • Active Positions: Current market holdings
  • Profit/Loss: Overall performance
  • Trade History: Past transactions
  • Performance Charts: Visual analytics

Understanding Your Portfolio

Portfolio Overview

Total Balance Breakdown

Wallet Balance: $500.00
In Active Positions: $1,200.00
Potential Payout: $2,150.00
Total Portfolio Value: $1,700.00

Components:

  • Wallet Balance: Available cash for trading
  • In Positions: Current cost basis of active trades
  • Potential Payout: Maximum value if all positions win
  • Total Value: Wallet + Current position value

Position Types

Open Positions

Markets that haven't resolved yet:

  • Can still be traded
  • Value fluctuates with price
  • Unrealized profit/loss

Closed Positions

Markets that have resolved:

  • No longer tradable
  • Final outcome determined
  • Realized profit/loss

Your Active Positions

Position Cards

Each position shows:

Market: Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by Dec 31, 2025?
Outcome: YES
Shares Held: 150
Avg. Buy Price: $0.42
Current Price: $0.58
Cost Basis: $63.00
Current Value: $87.00
Unrealized P&L: +$24.00 (+38.1%)

Key Metrics Per Position

  • Shares Held: Number of shares you own
  • Average Buy Price: Your average entry price
  • Current Price: Real-time market price
  • Cost Basis: Total amount invested
  • Current Value: Current worth at market prices
  • Unrealized P&L: Paper profit/loss (not locked in yet)

Position Actions

For each position, you can:

  • View Market: Go to full market page
  • Buy More: Add to your position
  • Sell Some: Reduce your position
  • Sell All: Close position completely
  • Set Alert: Get notified at target price

Portfolio Performance

Overall Statistics

Track your performance with:

Total Return

Total Invested: $5,000
Current Portfolio Value: $5,750
Total Return: +$750 (+15%)

Win Rate

Winning Positions: 12
Losing Positions: 8
Win Rate: 60%

Average Return

Total Profit/Loss: +$750
Number of Closed Trades: 20
Average Return: +$37.50 per trade

Performance by Category

See how you perform in different categories:

CategoryPositionsWin RateTotal P&LROI
Politics1567%+$450+22%
Sports850%+$120+8%
Crypto1258%+$180+12%
Entertainment580%+$200+35%

Insight: Focus on categories where you consistently perform well.

Portfolio Diversification

Why Diversify?

  • 🛡️ Reduce risk: Don't put all eggs in one basket
  • 📊 Smooth returns: Balance wins and losses
  • 🎯 Multiple opportunities: Capture different edges
  • 💪 Reduce volatility: Less dramatic swings

Diversification Strategies

By Category

Spread across different types:

30% Politics
25% Sports
20% Crypto
15% Business
10% Entertainment

By Time Horizon

Balance short and long-term:

40% Short-term (< 1 month)
40% Medium-term (1-3 months)
20% Long-term (3+ months)

By Probability

Mix high and low probability bets:

30% High certainty ($0.70-0.90)
50% Medium certainty ($0.40-0.70)
20% Long shots ($0.10-0.40)

By Position Size

Vary conviction levels:

Small positions (1-2%): 10 markets
Medium positions (3-5%): 5 markets
Large positions (5-10%): 2 markets

Risk Management

Portfolio Risk Metrics

Maximum Drawdown

Track your biggest loss from peak:

Portfolio Peak: $6,000
Current Value: $5,200
Drawdown: -$800 (-13.3%)

Healthy Range: Keep drawdowns under 20-25%

Value at Risk (VaR)

Estimate potential losses:

95% confidence: Won't lose more than $300 in next month
99% confidence: Won't lose more than $500 in next month

Concentration Risk

Avoid too much in one position:

Largest Position: $500
Total Portfolio: $5,000
Concentration: 10% (Acceptable)

Rule of Thumb: No single position over 10-15% of portfolio

Setting Portfolio Limits

Daily Loss Limit

Stop trading if you lose X% in one day:

Portfolio: $5,000
Daily Loss Limit: 5%
Stop trading if down: $250

Maximum Exposure

Limit total amount in active positions:

Total Portfolio: $5,000
Max Active Exposure: 80%
Keep in wallet: $1,000 (20%)

Rebalancing Your Portfolio

When to Rebalance

Consider rebalancing when:

  • One category grows too large (>40% of portfolio)
  • Position sizes drift from targets
  • New opportunities emerge
  • Risk tolerance changes

Rebalancing Methods

Percentage-Based

Sell positions that exceed targets:

Target: 25% in Crypto
Current: 35% in Crypto
Action: Sell 10% to rebalance

Calendar-Based

Rebalance on schedule:

  • Weekly: Active traders
  • Monthly: Regular traders
  • Quarterly: Long-term investors

Threshold-Based

Rebalance when drift exceeds threshold:

Category drifts >5% from target → Rebalance

Trade History and Analysis

Viewing Trade History

Your trade history shows:

  • All buys and sells: Complete transaction log
  • Entry and exit prices: Track your timing
  • Profit/loss per trade: Individual performance
  • Fees paid: Cost analysis
  • Dates and times: Temporal patterns

Analyzing Past Trades

Best Trades

Identify what works:

Top 5 Trades:
1. Political Market A: +$250 (+125% ROI)
2. Sports Market B: +$180 (+90% ROI)
3. Crypto Market C: +$150 (+75% ROI)

Question: What did these have in common?

Worst Trades

Learn from mistakes:

Bottom 5 Trades:
1. Entertainment Market X: -$100 (-100% loss)
2. Business Market Y: -$80 (-80% loss)
3. Sports Market Z: -$75 (-75% loss)

Question: What went wrong? How can you avoid this?

Performance Patterns

Look for patterns in your trading:

  • Time of day: Do you trade better at certain times?
  • Market types: Which categories suit you best?
  • Position duration: Better at quick flips or holding?
  • Price ranges: Better with high or low probability bets?

Portfolio Strategies

Conservative Strategy

Goal: Preserve capital, steady returns

Approach:

  • 80% in high-probability markets ($0.60-0.80)
  • Small position sizes (1-3%)
  • Long holding periods
  • High diversification (20+ positions)

Expected: 8-12% annual return, low volatility

Moderate Strategy

Goal: Balance growth and safety

Approach:

  • 60% medium probability ($0.40-0.70)
  • 30% high probability ($0.70-0.90)
  • 10% long shots ($0.10-0.40)
  • Medium position sizes (3-5%)
  • Mix of time horizons

Expected: 15-25% annual return, moderate volatility

Aggressive Strategy

Goal: Maximum returns, higher risk

Approach:

  • 50% medium probability
  • 30% long shots
  • 20% high probability
  • Larger position sizes (5-10%)
  • Active trading, quick flips
  • Concentrated portfolio (5-10 positions)

Expected: 30%+ annual return, high volatility

Tools and Features

Portfolio Filters

Filter your positions by:

  • Status: Open, Closed, All
  • Category: Politics, Sports, etc.
  • Performance: Winners, Losers, Break-even
  • Time: Date ranges
  • P&L: Sort by most/least profitable

Price Alerts

Set notifications for:

  • Target profit levels
  • Stop loss triggers
  • Market closure reminders
  • Significant price movements

Export Data

Download your data for:

  • Tax reporting
  • Personal analysis
  • Third-party tools
  • Record keeping

Formats: CSV, Excel, PDF

Portfolio Goals

Setting Goals

Define clear objectives:

Short-term (3 months):
- Achieve 10% portfolio growth
- Maintain 60%+ win rate
- Keep max drawdown under 15%

Long-term (1 year):
- Double portfolio value
- Master 2-3 categories
- Develop consistent strategy

Tracking Progress

Monitor goal progress:

  • Weekly review of metrics
  • Monthly performance summary
  • Quarterly strategy adjustment
  • Annual comprehensive review

Tax and Reporting

Year-End Summary

Access your annual report:

  • Total profit/loss
  • Number of trades
  • Fees paid
  • Category breakdown
  • Monthly performance

Transaction History

Export complete history:

  • All buys and sells
  • Deposits and withdrawals
  • Fees and charges
  • Dates and amounts

Note: Consult tax professional for your jurisdiction's requirements.

Mobile Portfolio Management

Mobile App Features

  • Real-time portfolio value
  • Quick position overview
  • Swipe to buy/sell
  • Push notifications for alerts
  • Biometric authentication

On-the-Go Tips

  • Check portfolio morning and evening
  • Set alerts for 10%+ moves
  • Use quick-sell for urgent exits
  • Review weekly performance summaries

Advanced Portfolio Analytics

Sharpe Ratio

Measure risk-adjusted returns:

Sharpe Ratio = (Portfolio Return - Risk-Free Rate) / Portfolio Volatility

Example:
Portfolio Return: 20%
Risk-Free Rate: 3%
Volatility (Std Dev): 12%

Sharpe Ratio = (20% - 3%) / 12% = 1.42

Interpretation:

  • Above 1.0: Good risk-adjusted returns
  • Above 2.0: Excellent risk-adjusted returns

Correlation Analysis

Understand position relationships:

  • Positive correlation: Positions move together (increases risk)
  • Negative correlation: Positions move opposite (reduces risk)
  • No correlation: Independent movements (optimal diversification)

Kelly Criterion

Calculate optimal position size:

Kelly % = (Win Probability × Gain) - Loss Probability) / Gain

Example:
Win Probability: 60%
Gain if Win: 100% (double your money)
Loss if Lose: 100% (lose it all)

Kelly = (0.60 × 1.0 - 0.40) / 1.0 = 0.20 = 20%

Use half-Kelly (10%) for more conservative sizing.

Common Portfolio Mistakes

❌ Over-Concentration

Problem: Too much in too few positions

Solution: Spread across 10-20+ positions

❌ Ignoring Correlation

Problem: Multiple positions on same underlying event

Solution: Check for related markets before adding positions

❌ No Stop Losses

Problem: Holding losing positions too long

Solution: Set and respect stop losses

❌ Chasing Losses

Problem: Increasing position sizes after losses

Solution: Stick to position sizing rules regardless of recent performance

❌ No Review Process

Problem: Not learning from past trades

Solution: Weekly review of trades and patterns

Next Steps

Master your portfolio management:

  1. Learn About Fees - Understand costs
  2. Explore Market Types - Different formats
  3. Read the Glossary - Master the terms

Need Help?

Ready to create your own markets? Learn about market creation →