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Writing Resolution Criteria

Clear resolution criteria are the foundation of successful prediction markets. This guide will help you write unambiguous criteria that traders can trust.

Why Resolution Criteria Matter​

Good criteria ensure:

  • ✅ Trust: Traders know exactly what they're betting on
  • ✅ Fairness: No disputes about outcomes
  • ✅ Clarity: Everyone interprets the question the same way
  • ✅ Efficiency: Quick, undisputed resolution

Poor criteria lead to:

  • ❌ Disputes and conflicts
  • ❌ Loss of trader confidence
  • ❌ Platform intervention
  • ❌ Damage to creator reputation

The Resolution Criteria Framework​

Essential Components​

Every market should include:

  1. YES Conditions: What triggers a YES resolution
  2. NO Conditions: What triggers a NO resolution
  3. Primary Source: Main data source for resolution
  4. Secondary Sources: Backup if primary unavailable
  5. Edge Cases: How to handle unusual situations
  6. Timing: When resolution will occur
  7. Final Authority: Who decides if ambiguous

Writing YES/NO Conditions​

Be Specific with Numbers​

❌ Vague: "Will the stock price go up significantly?"

✅ Specific: "Will Apple stock (AAPL) close above $200.00 on December 31, 2025?"

Include All Parameters​

Essential parameters to define:

  • Exact threshold: $200.00 (not "around $200")
  • Timing: Close price on December 31, 2025
  • Time zone: 4:00 PM ET (market close)
  • Source: NASDAQ official closing price

Example: Complete Criteria​

YES if:

- Apple Inc. (AAPL) common stock closes at or above $200.00
- On December 31, 2025
- 4:00 PM ET (NASDAQ closing time)
- As reported by NASDAQ official closing price

NO if:

- AAPL closes below $200.00 on December 31, 2025
- Or trading is suspended on that date (see edge cases)

Choosing Resolution Sources​

Primary Source Characteristics​

Good primary sources are:

  • ✅ Authoritative: Official, recognized source
  • ✅ Public: Freely accessible to all
  • ✅ Timely: Updates quickly after event
  • ✅ Reliable: Consistent and trustworthy
  • ✅ Specific: Provides exact data needed

Source Examples by Category​

Politics​

✅ Good: Official election commission, Federal Register, Congressional Record

❌ Bad: News articles, polls, social media

Sports​

✅ Good: Official league websites (NFL.com, NBA.com), ESPN box scores

❌ Bad: Twitter reports, unofficial statistics sites

Business​

✅ Good: SEC filings, company press releases, stock exchange data

❌ Bad: News speculation, analyst predictions

Crypto​

✅ Good: CoinMarketCap, Coingecko, major exchange APIs

❌ Bad: Single exchange, unverified sources

Weather​

✅ Good: National Weather Service, Weather.gov, official meteorological services

❌ Bad: Weather apps, local news

Backup Sources​

Always specify alternatives:

Resolution Source:

- Primary: National Weather Service weather.gov official report
- Secondary: Weather Underground historical data
- Tertiary: Creator discretion using average of top 3 weather services

Handling Edge Cases​

Common Edge Cases to Address​

Data Source Unavailable​

If primary source is unavailable:

- Wait 24 hours for restoration
- Use secondary source if primary still unavailable
- Use tertiary source if both unavailable
- Resolve N/A if no reliable source after 7 days

Event Cancelled/Postponed​

If event is cancelled:

- Market resolves N/A (all traders refunded)

If event is postponed:

- Resolution deadline extended to new event date
- Maximum extension: 30 days
- If extended beyond 30 days, resolve N/A

Definition Changes​

If official definition changes:

- Use definition as of market creation date
- Update market description with clarification
- Do not change resolution criteria retroactively

Data Source Discrepancy​

If sources conflict:

- Use primary source if difference <5%
- If difference >5%, wait 48 hours for correction
- Use average of top 3 sources if discrepancy persists
- Creator provides explanation in resolution notes

Technical Issues​

If technical issues prevent trading:

- Platform issues: Extend resolution deadline
- Exchange/source issues: Use backup sources
- Obvious errors (flash crashes <1 min): Ignore
- Systematic issues: May resolve N/A

Time-Based Criteria​

Specify Time Zones​

Always include time zone:

❌ "By December 31, 2025"

✅ "By 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2025"

Common Time Zone Formats​

  • UTC: Universal standard
  • ET: Eastern Time (specify EST or EDT)
  • PT: Pacific Time (specify PST or PDT)
  • Local: Specify location

Buffer Time​

Allow resolution buffer:

Event Date: December 31, 2025
Resolution Window: January 1-3, 2026

- Allows time for official confirmation
- Prevents rushing resolution
- Accommodates delays

Numeric Thresholds​

Precision Matters​

Specify decimal places:

❌ "Above $100"

✅ "At or above $100.00" or "Exceeds $100.00"

"At or Above" vs "Above"​

Be clear about boundaries:

"At or above $100.00" → $100.00 counts as YES
"Above $100.00" → Must exceed $100.00 (e.g., $100.01)

Rounding​

State rounding rules:

Resolution based on value rounded to 2 decimal places.
Example: $99.999 rounds to $100.00 → YES
Example: $99.994 rounds to $99.99 → NO

Percentage Criteria​

Specify Basis​

❌ "If approval rating exceeds 50%"

✅ "If approval rating exceeds 50.0% according to FiveThirtyEight
aggregate poll average on December 31, 2025"

Handling Percentage Ranges​

If multiple polls exist:

- Use aggregate average from FiveThirtyEight
- If unavailable, average of RCP top 5 polls
- Round to 1 decimal place
- Exactly 50.0% resolves to NO (must exceed)

Qualitative vs Quantitative​

Prefer Quantitative​

❌ Qualitative: "Will the product launch successfully?"

✅ Quantitative: "Will the product launch before December 31, 2025, as announced by CEO?"

Making Qualitative Objective​

Transform subjective into objective:

❌ "Will the movie be well-received?"

✅ "Will the movie achieve a Rotten Tomatoes score of 75% or higher?"

❌ "Will the team play well?"

✅ "Will the team win more than 50 games in the season?"

Multiple Choice Markets​

Each Option Must Be Clear​

Question: Who will win the championship?

Option A: Golden State Warriors
Option B: Los Angeles Lakers
Option C: Boston Celtics
Option D: Other (any team not listed)

Resolution:

- Winning team according to NBA.com final standings
- Resolves to "Other" if none of A, B, or C wins
- Based on 2024-2025 season championship

Mutually Exclusive​

Ensure only one option can win:

✅ Good: "Which candidate receives most votes?"

❌ Bad: "Which candidates receive over 30%?" (multiple could)

Real Examples​

Example 1: Political Market​

Market: Will Candidate X win the 2024 Presidential Election?

YES if:

- Candidate X receives 270+ electoral votes
- According to official state certifications
- By December 31, 2024

NO if:

- Any other candidate receives 270+ electoral votes
- Or no candidate reaches 270 (contingent election)

Resolution Source:

- Primary: Associated Press election calls
- Secondary: Official state certifications
- Final: Congressional certification on January 6, 2025

Edge Cases:

- If AP call is contested, wait for state certifications
- Recounts don't change resolution if already determined
- If election is delayed, extend resolution to new date (max 60 days)
- Resolve N/A only if election is completely cancelled

Resolution Timing:

- After all states certify results
- Or after Congressional certification
- Target: Mid-December 2024

Example 2: Business Market​

Market: Will Tesla stock close above $300 in Q4 2025?

YES if:

- Tesla Inc. (TSLA) closing price ≥ $300.00
- On any trading day in Q4 2025 (Oct 1 - Dec 31)
- As reported by NASDAQ official close

NO if:

- TSLA closes every day in Q4 2025 below $300.00

Resolution Source:

- Primary: NASDAQ official closing prices
- Secondary: Yahoo Finance historical data
- Tertiary: Average of NASDAQ, Bloomberg, Reuters

Edge Cases:

- Stock splits: Adjust threshold accordingly (e.g., 2:1 split → $150)
- Trading halts: Don't count as trading days
- Early market close days: Use official close price
- If TSLA is delisted: Resolve based on final trading price

Resolution Timing:

- Within 48 hours of December 31, 2025 market close

Example 3: Sports Market​

Market: Will the Super Bowl total score exceed 50 points?

YES if:

- Combined final score of both teams > 50 points
- In Super Bowl LIX (2025 game)
- According to NFL.com official box score

NO if:

- Combined final score ≤ 50 points

Resolution Source:

- Primary: NFL.com official final score
- Secondary: ESPN box score
- Tertiary: CBS Sports/Fox Sports official broadcast

Edge Cases:

- Overtime points count toward total
- If game is cancelled: Resolve N/A
- If game is postponed: Wait for rescheduled date (max 30 days)
- Scoring corrections: Use score as of 24 hours post-game
- Exactly 50 points: Resolves to NO (must exceed)

Resolution Timing:

- Within 2 hours of final whistle
- After any immediate scoring corrections

Testing Your Criteria​

The Challenge Test​

Ask yourself:

  1. Could two reasonable people interpret this differently?

    • If yes, clarify further

  2. Are there scenarios I haven't considered?

    • Add to edge cases

  3. Is my data source always reliable?

    • Add backup sources

  4. What if the event is delayed or cancelled?

    • Specify what happens

  5. Could someone manipulate the outcome?

    • Choose manipulation-resistant sources

Peer Review​

Before publishing:

  • Have someone else read your criteria
  • Ask them to find ambiguities
  • Test with hypothetical edge cases
  • Refine based on feedback

Common Mistakes​

❌ Ambiguous Language​

Problem: "Around $100"

Solution: "At or above $100.00"

❌ No Time Zone​

Problem: "By midnight on December 31"

Solution: "By 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2025"

❌ Single Source​

Problem: "According to CNN"

Solution: "According to official state certifications as reported by AP, with CNN as secondary source"

❌ No Edge Cases​

Problem: Doesn't mention what happens if event is cancelled

Solution: "If cancelled, market resolves N/A with full refunds"

❌ Subjective Interpretation​

Problem: "If the launch is successful"

Solution: "If company announces launch occurred per original specifications"

Resolution Criteria Checklist​

Before publishing, verify:

  • YES condition is crystal clear
  • NO condition is crystal clear
  • Primary data source specified
  • Backup sources included
  • Time zone specified
  • Decimal precision defined
  • Cancellation scenario addressed
  • Postponement scenario addressed
  • Data conflict scenario addressed
  • Technical issue scenario addressed
  • No subjective language
  • No ambiguous terms
  • Peer reviewed by at least one person

Next Steps​

Master resolution:

  1. Resolving Markets - Learn to resolve fairly
  2. Market Types - Different formats
  3. Check Examples - See market examples

Need Help?​

  • Examples: Study top markets for inspiration
  • Questions: Email creators@publicwager.com
  • Templates: Request criteria templates for common market types

Ready to learn about the resolution process? Continue →