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Resolving Markets

Learn how to fairly and accurately resolve prediction markets based on real-world outcomes.

Resolution Overview​

Resolution is the process of determining the final outcome of a market based on what actually happened and distributing payouts to winning traders.

Your Responsibilities​

As a market creator, you must:

  • ✅ Monitor the event until it concludes
  • ✅ Gather authoritative data promptly
  • ✅ Follow your stated resolution criteria exactly
  • ✅ Resolve within reasonable timeframe
  • ✅ Provide clear resolution notes
  • ✅ Handle disputes fairly

When to Resolve​

Timing Guidelines​

Resolve promptly after:

  • Event has definitively concluded
  • Official results are available
  • Data from primary source confirmed
  • No reasonable doubt remains

Don't rush if:

  • Results may change (recounts, reviews)
  • Official confirmation pending
  • Data sources conflict
  • Edge case needs investigation
Market TypeResolution Timeline
Sports (game results)1-4 hours after final whistle
Elections (clear winner)24-48 hours after polls close
Elections (close/recount)After official certification
Business (earnings)24 hours after announcement
Price predictions24 hours after target date
Yes/No events48 hours after event date

Resolution Process​

Step 1: Verify the Outcome​

Check your primary source:

Market: Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by Dec 31, 2025?

Verification:
✓ Check CoinMarketCap on Jan 1, 2026
✓ Review high price for Dec 31, 2025
✓ Confirm with secondary sources
✓ Screenshot evidence

Step 2: Review Your Criteria​

Re-read your resolution criteria:

  • Does the outcome clearly match YES or NO?
  • Are there any edge cases that apply?
  • Should you use backup sources?
  • Is there any ambiguity?

Step 3: Gather Evidence​

Document your resolution:

  • Screenshot data sources
  • Note exact values/results
  • Record timestamp
  • Save source URLs
  • Document any calculations

Step 4: Submit Resolution​

Navigate to market management:

  1. Go to your market page
  2. Click Resolve Market
  3. Select outcome (YES, NO, or N/A)
  4. Add resolution notes
  5. Attach evidence if needed
  6. Confirm resolution

Step 5: Write Resolution Notes​

Explain your decision clearly:

Resolution: YES

This market resolves to YES because Bitcoin reached $103,250 
on Coinbase at 3:47 PM UTC on December 28, 2025, exceeding 
the $100,000 threshold before the December 31, 2025 deadline.

Sources:
- CoinMarketCap historical data (screenshot attached)
- Coinbase price feed confirmation
- Binance concurrent pricing: $103,180

Resolution timestamp: January 1, 2026 at 10:23 AM UTC

Resolution Outcomes​

Resolving to YES​

Use when:

  • Event occurred as specified
  • Threshold was met or exceeded
  • Criteria for YES fulfilled
  • Evidence is clear and conclusive

Payout: YES shareholders receive $1.00 per share

Resolving to NO​

Use when:

  • Event did not occur
  • Threshold was not met
  • Criteria for YES not fulfilled
  • Deadline passed without occurrence

Payout: NO shareholders receive $1.00 per share

Resolving to N/A (Invalid)​

Use ONLY when:

  • Event was cancelled permanently
  • Resolution is impossible to determine
  • Criteria were fundamentally flawed
  • Both YES and NO are incorrect

Payout: All traders refunded their initial investment

Warning: N/A should be rare. Only use when truly necessary.

Handling Disputes​

Common Dispute Types​

Source Interpretation​

Issue: Traders disagree on data interpretation

Solution:

  1. Review your exact criteria
  2. Apply criteria literally
  3. Show your reasoning with evidence
  4. Consider community input
  5. Be consistent with past resolutions

Technical Issues​

Issue: Data source had errors

Solution:

  1. Document the technical issue
  2. Use backup sources per criteria
  3. Investigate if error affected outcome
  4. Be transparent about decision process

Edge Cases​

Issue: Unexpected scenario occurred

Solution:

  1. Check if you addressed this edge case
  2. Apply most analogous criteria
  3. Be fair and consistent
  4. Explain reasoning thoroughly

Dispute Resolution Steps​

  1. Acknowledge: Respond to disputed claims
  2. Review: Re-examine your criteria and evidence
  3. Explain: Provide detailed reasoning
  4. Evidence: Share sources and data
  5. Fair: Consider if resolution was truly fair
  6. Correct: If wrong, resolve to platform support

When to Request Help​

Contact platform support if:

  • You made an error in resolution
  • Situation is genuinely ambiguous
  • Community strongly disagrees
  • You're unable to access resolution data
  • Personal conflict of interest exists

Resolution Best Practices​

Be Objective​

Remove bias:

  • Don't consider your own positions
  • Ignore financial impact on yourself
  • Follow criteria regardless of preferences
  • Treat all traders equally

Be Transparent​

Share your process:

  • Cite specific sources
  • Show your calculations
  • Explain edge case handling
  • Respond to questions

Be Timely​

Resolve promptly:

  • Don't make traders wait unnecessarily
  • Set expectations for timing
  • Communicate delays if needed
  • Batch resolve similar markets efficiently

Be Consistent​

Apply standards uniformly:

  • Use same methodology across markets
  • Interpret criteria the same way
  • Set precedents carefully
  • Learn from past resolutions

Complex Scenarios​

Scenario 1: Data Sources Conflict​

Situation: Primary source shows YES, secondary shows NO

Resolution:

Per resolution criteria, using average of top 3 sources:
- Source A (Primary): 51.2%
- Source B (Secondary): 49.8%
- Source C (Tertiary): 50.5%

Average: 50.5%

Since criteria stated "must exceed 50%", and 50.5% > 50%, 
resolving to YES.

Scenario 2: Event Postponed​

Situation: Event rescheduled beyond 30-day extension limit

Resolution:

Per edge case criteria, event was postponed from Dec 15 to 
Feb 3, exceeding our 30-day maximum extension.

Resolving to N/A as specified. All participants refunded.

Note: A new market for the rescheduled event has been created 
[link to new market].

Scenario 3: Definition Changed Mid-Market​

Situation: Official definition modified during market life

Resolution:

While the official definition changed on Nov 1, our resolution 
criteria explicitly stated we would use the definition "as of 
market creation date (Oct 1)."

Using original definition as specified, market resolves to YES.

Resolution Errors​

If You Made a Mistake​

Immediately:

  1. Don't try to hide it
  2. Contact platform support
  3. Explain the error clearly
  4. Provide correct resolution
  5. Apologize to traders

Platform Review Process​

Support will:

  • Review your evidence
  • Verify the error
  • Check resolution criteria
  • Possibly re-resolve the market
  • Adjust payouts if needed

Preventing Errors​

Before finalizing:

  • Double-check your sources
  • Review criteria one more time
  • Verify your calculations
  • Check for recent updates
  • Wait 10 minutes and review again

N/A Resolution Guidelines​

Valid Reasons for N/A​

✅ Event completely cancelled (no reschedule)

✅ All data sources permanently unavailable

✅ Resolution is genuinely impossible

✅ Criteria were fundamentally broken

✅ Force majeure prevented outcome

Invalid Reasons for N/A​

❌ You don't want to resolve to YES or NO

❌ Community is upset with outcome

❌ You forgot to specify an edge case

❌ Data temporarily unavailable

❌ Result is controversial but clear

N/A Impact​

Remember:

  • Traders lose time value of money
  • Opportunity cost of locked capital
  • Damages your creator reputation
  • Should be used sparingly

Multiple Choice Resolution​

Selecting the Winner​

Only one option can win:

Market: Who will win the championship?

Final Standings:
1. Team A - Champions ✓
2. Team B - Runner-up
3. Team C - Third place

Resolution: Option A (Team A)

All other options resolve to $0.

Tie Scenarios​

Address in criteria:

If multiple teams tie:
- Use head-to-head record as tiebreaker
- If still tied, use point differential
- If still tied, resolve to "Other"

Batch Resolution​

Resolving Multiple Markets​

If you have many markets resolving:

  1. Sort by deadline
  2. Resolve oldest first
  3. Use consistent methodology
  4. Can resolve similar markets together
  5. Still provide individual notes

Efficiency Tips​

  • Prepare data ahead of time
  • Use templates for resolution notes
  • Screenshot all evidence at once
  • Schedule resolution time
  • Communicate batch resolution plan

Post-Resolution​

Monitor Feedback​

After resolving:

  • Check for disputes
  • Respond to questions
  • Defend your decision with evidence
  • Be open to review if genuinely wrong

Learn and Improve​

Reflect on each resolution:

  • What went well?
  • What was challenging?
  • How can criteria be clearer next time?
  • What edge cases did you miss?

Build Reputation​

Quality resolutions earn:

  • Trust from traders
  • Higher reputation scores
  • Better market placement
  • More trading volume

Resolution Checklist​

Before finalizing:

  • Event has conclusively occurred
  • Primary source data collected
  • Backup sources checked (if needed)
  • Resolution criteria reviewed
  • Evidence documented
  • Edge cases considered
  • Resolution notes written
  • No personal bias applied
  • Timing is appropriate
  • Decision is defensible

Next Steps​

Complete your market creator knowledge:

  1. Learn About Fees - Understand costs
  2. Market Types - All formats
  3. FAQ - Common questions

Need Help?​

Remember: Fair, transparent, and timely resolution builds trust and grows the platform.